Job Search
 
 
  CV Search
 
 
  News
Shipbrokers Expect Increased Interest for Product Tanker Newbuildings
  
2019 Prospects are Rosy for the Handy Supramax Bulker Segment
  
Dry Bulk Market Long Haul Cargoes of Iron Ore Could Dwindle
  
Carnival Cruise ship has technical issue causing ship to tilt to one side It was pure chaos Screams Cries Panic
  
The 2020 Global Sulphur cap
  
 
 

Maritime News

Could Rising Oil Prices Tank Global Growth?

A projected rise in oil demand and prices has opened a debate on the downside risks to global growth. Morgan Stanley’s Chief Global Economist, Chetan Ahya, says when it comes to oil, timing is everything.

The pace of the recent rise in oil prices has sparked a debate among investors on whether this poses downside risks to global growth. The answer depends on whether the rise is driven by a significant shift in demand (endogenous, or based on internal factors) or supply (exogenous, or relating to external factors).

This current rise in oil prices is taking place against a backdrop where global growth has been strong and above trend for the past five quarters. As our global oil strategist Martijn Rats highlights, the uptick in demand for oil products centers on middle distillates (broadly, three products: jet fuel/kerosene, gasoil/diesel, and heating oil).

He notes that these products power heavy machinery and typically fuel industrial growth in emerging markets (EM) and international trade. Against this backdrop of stronger EM growth and rising demand for middle distillates, Martijn projects that oil prices (Brent crude) will rise gradually to US$85 a barrel by 4Q19.

Assessing the Oil Burden

One way to assess the impact of oil on the global economy is to look at the trend in the oil burden which is calculated by multiplying the volume of oil consumed by the average price of oil during that time, then dividing by nominal gross domestic product.

Combining the projected rise in oil demand and prices, we calculate that the global oil burden will rise to 3.1% of global GDP in 2018 from 2.4% in 2017. While above long-term averages (unsurprising given that global growth will remain above trend too), the oil burden is halfway between the 2004 level of 2.7% and the 2005 level of 3.5%. Coincidentally, the real oil price—as deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)—also sits at mid-2005 levels.

The global economy is well positioned to absorb this moderate rise in the oil burden, as it was back then. A recovery in investment growth has been followed by an uptick in global productivity growth. On the whole, the buffer of these productivity gains should help the economy withstand the rise in input costs.

Similarly, during the 2003-07 period, strong growth in China resulted in an increase in oil demand and prices. However, as this growth was driven by strong productivity gains, macro stability indicators like inflation and current account surpluses remained in check and growth continued on an upward trajectory, virtually unperturbed by the rise in input costs.

Timing is Everything

As with much in life, there is a fine balance with respect to oil prices. When oil prices declined significantly from mid-2014 to early 2016, rather than being a boon to global growth, they had an adverse impact. The capex cycle was already weak, and the fall in oil and commodity prices caused another downtick in capex at commodity companies and in commodity export-dependent countries.

In the U.S., one reason why corporate credit spreads widened between late 2014 and 2016 was the decline in energy prices, which impacted the high yield credit space due to its sector composition. In contrast, the rise in oil and commodity prices today is leading to a recovery in pricing power for commodity companies and an improvement in terms of trade for commodity-exporting nations, thus providing support to capex in these segments.

Given that the rise in oil prices is an endogenous response to strong global growth and that the oil burden is not at onerous levels, at this juncture we are inclined to think that rising oil prices do not pose a major threat to aggregate global growth.

However, a rise in prices does result in relative winners and losers: Commodity producers and exporters should benefit at the expense of consumers and commodity importers. In this context, our equity strategists across all three regions (U.S., Europe and EM) are positive on the energy sector. In fixed income, our strategists are bearish on credit markets overall, particularly on high yield. Within EM credit, they are more cautious on the low-quality oil-importing names.
Source: Morgan Stanley,Hellenic Shipping News.

Published On Jun 13,2018 @ www.seajobhunt.com !!!

 Featured Company
Swaraj Marine Services Pvt. Ltd.,India Shipteck Marine Solutions Pvt. Ltd.,India Seaways Offshore Marine India Pvt.  Ltd.,India
Rudraksh Marine Services Pvt. Ltd.,India Fleet Line Navigation Marine Management Pvt. Ltd.,India Blackhull Maritime Services Private Limited,India
CASABLANCA SHIPPING PVT LTD ,India TANKER SHIP MANAGEMENT & OFFSHORE PVT. LTD.,India NAVYLINE SHIP MANAGMENT PVT LTD,India
Marine World ,India Nessa Ship Management,India MV SHIPPING MANEGEMENT SERVICES PVT LTD,India
HOLY ANGEL MARINE SERVICES PVT LTD,India Oceanwharf Shipping Services Pvt. Ltd.,India Cromwell Ship Mangement Pvt Ltd,India
BAMS MARINE SERVICES PVT LTD,India Accord Marine Management Pvt Ltd,India Sea Wealth Marine Solutions,India
Westline Ship Management Pvt Ltd,India Yak Marine Pvt Ltd. ,India Jude Enterprises & Marine Services Pvt. Ltd.,India
Mehdi Bros Ship Services Pvt. Ltd.,India RAS SHIP MANAGEMENT Pvt.Ltd ,India K.R. Marine Services Pvt. Ltd.,India
S S OFFSHORE PVT LTD,India AL-HUZAIR MARINE SERVICES PVT.LTD,India West Zone Marine Pvt Ltd,India
Admiral Marine Services Pvt. Ltd.,India Udya Shipping Services Pvt. Ltd. ,India CCrescent,India
Nimbus Maritime Services Private Limited,India S K ENGINEERING SHIPPING I PVT LTD,India Vrinda Global Pvt. Ltd.,India
AUBURN SHIPMANAGEMENT DMCC,India Trycon Marine Services Private Limited,India ASIA MARITIME SERVICES PVT.LTD.,India
ASP Ship Management (India) Pvt Ltd,India Aark Shipping And Manning Pvt. Ltd.,India Euro Crewing Service LLC,India
Ocean Offshore Marine India,India AMAZE MARITIME SERVICES PVT. LTD. ,India BD Shipping,India
Global Jobs Pool. ,India CORPORATE MARITIME SER PVT LTD,India Arctic Offshore & Manning Company Pvt. Ltd.,India
Vigil Marine Services Private Limited,India NAAVEX MARINE SERVICES,India World Ships Management Pvt Ltd,India
Sea Wealth Maine Solutions,India TEJAS MARITIME PVT. LTD. ( MAC SHIP DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION PRIVATE LIMITED ),India DP SHIP MANAGEMENT PVT. LTD,India
DS MARINE,India Trinitas Ship Management Private Limited,India OLIVE CREW MANAGEMENT,India
Nams Ship Management Pvt.Ltd,India IMS SHIP MANAGEMENT Pvt Ltd,India vencen marine solution,India
SS Maritime Services,India Seastrom Marine Pvt. Ltd.,India Malawat Ship Management Pvt.Ltd.,India
Mariners Community Ship Management Private Limited,India Primanav ship management pvt. ltd,India Oceanic Star Shipping Pvt. Ltd. ,India
SEASON SHIP MANAGEMENT & MARITIME SERVICES,India Tapti Waterways Private Limited,India Naz Maritime Services Pvt.Ltd.,India
Swar India Shipping Services Pvt. Ltd,India Quadrant Maritime Pvt Ltd,India Tangar Ship Management Pvt Ltd,India
SHOROX SHIPPING OPC PVT LTD,India Oath Marine Services Pvt Ltd,India MARVIN INTERNATIONAL SHIP MANAGEMENT,India
Rassiya Shipping Services Pvt Ltd,India AUBURN SHIPMANAGEMENT DMCC,India Mr.Sushant,India
Summai Shipping Pvt.Ltd.,India MMS Maritime (India) Pvt.Ltd,India AMSWAY SHIP MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIMITED,India
AG. MARITIME PRIVATE LIMITED,India Pelorus shipping pvt.ltd,India SVS MARINE SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,India
Seashell Marine Service Pvt. Ltd,India East India Shipping Agency,India Campbell Shipping Pvt. Ltd.,India
Phelix Shipping Ventures Pvt. Ltd,India I-Marine Infratech (India) Pvt. Ltd,India SHODEN MARITIME & SHIPPING VENTURES PVT LTD,India
Coastal Shipping Links(India) Pvt.Ltd,India DMC SHIP MANAGMENT PVT LTD ,India Unimar Marine Services Pvt. Ltd.,India
Three Bees Shipping Pvt. Ltd,India Ocean Glaxy Marine Pvt. Ltd.,India VR MARITIME SERVICES PVT LTD,India
Seaprime Marine Mgmt Pvt.Ltd,India sarwamangla Marine Pvt Ltd,India Twilight Shipping,India
Indocean Maritime Services Pvt Ltd,India Valaf DMCC,India Lilly Maritime Pvt. Ltd.,India
Neptune Ship Management ,India Nimbusmaritime Service,India MMS Americas LLC,India
Amag Ships Pvt. Ltd.,India gwl maritime services india pvt ltd ,India Blue Whale Maritime,India
PRATISHTHA MARINE SERVICES,India INTER OCEANIC MARINE SERVICES PVT LTD,India Royal Shipping Services,India
Join Hands Marine Services Private Limited,India RAMAN MARITIME ACADEMY PVT. LTD.,India DEMENTUS SHIP MANAGEMENT INDIA PVT LTD,India
Meridian Marine Management Private Limited,India Penta Crystal Ship Management,India Oceanic Shipping Services Private Limited,India
Synergy Maritime Recruitment Services Pvt Ltd,India MAERSK ,India Oceans Pride Marine Services Pvt. Ltd.,India
SeaJobhunt,India APAC Marine Services Pvt. Ltd,India Angel Maritime (India) Services ,India
Albatross  Marine Services  ,India AET Shipmanagement (India) Pvt. Ltd,India Helm Shipping Management Private Limited,India
SHRI MAHAVIR MARINE SERVICES PVT LTD,India Ind-Aust Maritime Pvt. Ltd,India Bridgeview Maritime Pvt.Ltd,India
Calm Seas Shipping and Maritime Services Pvt.ltd,India Ad Ship Management pvt. Ltd,India Tristarr Maritime And Shipping Private Limited,India

Copyrights © 2012 seajobhunt.com
Terms and Conditions  -   Sitemap  -   Private Policy  -   FAQ  -   Contact Us
Site By : Pheunix